AV or not to AV:

I have some comments, I’d welcome feedback:

1) The YES campaign state that an MP has to work harder for my vote, yet only those whose 2nd choices are amongst the mainstream parties will have their vote counted.  For example:

If I voted Labour, with my second choice as Green, I can almost certainly guarantee that the Greens will be eliminated in a round before the Conservatives or Lib Dems, so my 2nd choice will be irrelevant. 2) Also, imagine if for example, in a random constituency, the Conservatives won the 1st round with say 25% of the vote, Labour came 2nd with 23%, and the rest of the field had 52%.

If of those 52%, a quarter of the vote were redistributed to each of those two parties after successive rounds, and half the voters didn’t include a preference for either of those parties, then the result would stand at:

38% – Conservative
36% – Labour

Now as far as I can see from all the advertising, I am being told that that an MP MUST have 50% of the vote to win, yet in the scenario I have just gone through, the winning candidate has just won by only 2% of the vote and not only that, but 62% of the electorate have confirmed that of all the candidates, they definitely don’t want that one to win (Where-as under the current system we would just assume as-much! ).

2) Although over the past 20 years, there have been many occasions when Labour supporters may have voted Lib Dem to keep out the Conservatives, and vice versa, that certainly won’t be the case in the near future, so the chances are that there will be a lot of people only putting one choice on their ballot paper, so we’ll be in no better position than we were to start with.

3) The only benefit I can see to the AV system is for fringe parties. Those parties that may get the electorate to put them as a number one choice (perhaps as a protest vote, as has benefited the BNP, and Green party in the past).

Those people that think, “I will vote for the UKIP as my 1st preference to protest to the Government that I am not happy with our stance on the EU, but it’s okay, because they won’t win and the Conservatives will get my vote as usual”. Yet this backfires, because the 10,000 other voters put UKIP as their 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th choices, and the Conservatives are knocked out in the 5th round. UKIP then win because the importance of someone’s single vote has been diluted to the point that they start playing ‘chicken’ with politicians, and they thought they would use their ‘back-up’ vote to protest to the current Government.

Of course all of this is hypothetical, and each scenario relies on specific circumstances, but I’ve just spent the evening talking to my brother, coming up with plenty more scenarios that follow the same lines. I just think that this system isn’t quite what we’re looking for, and the common argument that ‘it’s a step in the right direction’, may work for the likes of equality laws, and healthcare reforms, but that argument shouldn’t be employed for the foundation of our democracy. If we’re gonna change it, it should done right.

We are hopefully a few hours away from a final result.

Despite what the Conservatives are saying, I don’t believe that ‘the country has shown that they no longer want Gordon Brown’, or ‘if the country finds that Gordon Brown is still running the country then they will be very angry’.  There are plenty of people that voted Lib Dem just to keep the Conservatives out, so these are Lib Dem voters that won’t be upset with a Labour-led coalition government.

Right now, it appears the country is pretty evenly split between left and right wings as far as seats is concerned.  It just so happens that the left wing is split between Labour, the Lib Dems, the SDP, the Greens, and various other parties, and the right wing is made up of just one, the Conservatives.  The only reason, being that the Conservatives are out on their own in areas of policy and ethos.

Conservatives have been talking about how Labour cannot run a coalition as ‘the people’ will be against it.  Well let me just remind the Conservatives.  They have only exceeded Labour by 7% of the vote.  If Labour and the Lib Dems form a coalition, then the Government would represent over 52% of the popular vote, to the Conservatives 36%.

So what happens after a Tory/Lib Dem Queen’s speech?  How many Conservative manifesto pledges won’t make it that far because the Lib Dems have forced them out?  Then once in Government, how many policies will make it to law.  Will ANY Lib Dem who has been elected morally be able to vote FOR Trident and a Nuclear deterrent?  Will they vote to abolish the Licence fee?  Will they agree a budget that makes immediate swingeing cuts when they campaigned that it would be economic suicide? Will they vote to force BT to sell off its infrastructure to other private companies (ie Rupert Murdoch), will they vote to increase the inheritance tax threshold for the rich?   Will they vote to reduce the top band tax rate?

For any Lib Dem that is worthy to represent their party and it’s beliefs, the answer has to be no.  Of course there are some policies with wiggle room, but those listed above are just a few of many which are core fundamental values at the heart of the Lib Dem ethos.   To vote against these core value would put the Lib Dems back decades, and lose them any respect they have managed to build.  They will be known as the party who are willing to betray their beliefs for short term gain, and without looking at the bigger picture.

Okay, I just cannot take it anymore.  I’m voting Labour, and below is a list of the reasons why.  I haven’t mentioned the Economy in the list, because it deserves special attention in the paragraphs immediately below.

The Economy

The Global recession is widely reported to be the worst on record.  I have been alive long enough to remember the last two, and whilst this one may be bigger on paper, the effect has been dramatically less.

There are two answers to the deficit being put forward by the main political parties:

Conservatives = Make cuts NOW , Labour and Lib Dem = Sure up Economic growth, then make cuts over 4 years.

I don’t know about you, but on any given day I would much prefer to have a job whilst my government is in debt, than to be unemployed whilst my government enjoys a healthy balance sheet.

I realise that this is a selfish and simplistic view, and yes, I realise that there are risks for a Government to be in debt; however, the economy IS growing again, and Labour’s plan is detailed whilst remaining flexible, and makes perfect sense to me.  The Conservative plan sounds exactly the same as their previous 2 mishandled recessions.  They simply don’t seem to understand that the moment Government budgets are cut, private sector contracts and therefore JOBS, are going to be lost, meaning more money paid out in benefits, and less income tax and VAT revenues coming in.  I’ve seen it before twice, and I don’t want to see it again.  I’m employed and I want to stay that way to ride out the difficult times.

The business leaders that are hailing Cameron’s plan are the same ones that will be better off after Cameron implements Conservative tax plans.  I’m not buying it.  Have you also noticed how Cameron’s media policies (like forcing BT to sell off it’s cabling and network, and scrapping the licence fee) play straight into the hands of his best buddy Rupert ‘come have dinner on my yacht’ Murdoch??

(NOTE:  Please read the comment added to this blog by mostly_harmless.  Very good points were made that I haven't written about, yet are still very much relevant)

What did the Conservatives do during their last period in Government?

I’ve been thinking about the introduction of far-reaching, ground-breaking, positively newsworthy ‘social’ policies that truly benefited society during the Conservative Governments of 1979-1997.   I couldn’t think of any, so I asked 6 different middle-aged staunch Conservative voters I used to work with.  The only things THEY could reel off the top of their heads was ‘they gave people the right to buy their own council houses’, and ‘they made Britain strong by standing up to Argentina’.

When I trawled the internet, I pretty-much found the same thing.  It pails in comparison to Labour’s list below.

I did however, find this:

“Well they ordered the riot police to beat the crap out of striking miners, then caused riots with a poll tax, denied there was any evidence that you could catch CJD from infected beef (Not everyone has forgotten), privatised anything they could get hold of, took free milk away from children, and squandered a large amount of North sea gas and oil. Although without them, Spitting image wouldn’t have been that funny, so its not like they are all bad.”

I only wish I could take credit for that.  Thank you wildkarrde

The List:

So here is my list of reasons why I will be voting Labour:

1. Gave Independence to the Bank of England.
   Freeing politicians from the temptation to alter interest rates in big election give-aways.
2. Stopping Genocide in Sierra Leone
   Over two decades of government neglect of the interior followed by the spilling over of the Liberian conflict into its borders eventually led to the Sierra Leone Civil War, which began in 1991 and was resolved in 2000 after the struggling Nigerian led United Nations troops were heavily reinforced by a British force spearheaded by 42 Commando of the Royal Marines as well as several British Army units. The arrival of this force in what was codenamed OPERATION PALLISER resulted in the defeat of rebel forces and restored the civilian government elected in 1998 to Freetown. Since then, almost 72,500 former combatants have been disarmed and the country has reestablished a functioning democracy.
3. Repealed ‘Section 28′.
   Allowing Homosexually to be discussed in schools.  Being a teenager and gay is harrowing enough, without it being considered a ‘taboo’.  At least if it can be openly talked about, it it shows that it truly is nothing to be ashamed of.
4. Allowed equal rights for surviving gay partners by allowing Civil Partnerships.
   Through the introduction of civil partnerships, Labour has for the first time given legal recognition to same-sex partners. Gay couples now have the same inheritance, pension and next-of-kin rights as married couples.
5. Reduced the legal age of consent for homosexual sexual relations to 16 to fall in line with heterosexual relations.
6. Introduced the National minimum wage.
7. Introduced Paternity leave for new fathers.
8. Maternity pay from day one, maternity pay extended from 14 to 26 weeks.
9. Negotiated the Good Friday Agreement bringing peace to Northern Ireland.
10. Backed a winning bid for the 2012 Olympics, initiating incredible redevelopment of London’s East End.
11. Saw through the construction of the Millennium Dome, despite the opposition of an extremely narrow minded press and a bandwagon-hopping Conservative party.
    The reported £900 million this cost, paid for the new transport infrastructure (improvements to the bus network and Jubilee Line), the clearance of dozens of acres of toxic land that had been unusable for years, created a world class entertainment venue which continues to pay rent into the government coffers, has produced acres of prime real estate for the private sector to develop which would have been left as abandoned warehouses, and became a direct example to the IOC as to what government/private partnerships could accomplish in the East End, which ultimately resulted in a successful Olympic bid.
12. Overall crime is down 36 per cent; domestic burglary is down 54 per cent; vehicle related crime is down 57 per cent; and violent crime is down 41 per cent.
    The fear of crime however, has increased exponentially. Especially for the Daily Mail and it’s readers (ie; the Conservative party).
13. Pensioners, the disabled, and their carers, have been given free bus travel throughout the UK.
14. Winter fuel allowances for the Elderly.
    Pensioners no longer need to risk death because they cannot afford to buy the grandchildren Christmas presents AND heat their home.  I know that the Conservatives and the Lib Dems suggest that they would rather scrap this and increase Pensions instead.  I have only one comment….the winter fuel payments are TAX FREE.  Pensions are not.
15. Free swimming, free eye tests, free TV licences for over-75s.
16. VAT on fuel reduced to 5%
17. A minimum income guarantee for Pensioners.
18. Free TV licences for over-75s.
19. A free nursery place for every 3 and 4 year old.
20. Higher level of Disability Living Allowance of the Blind and Partially Sighted.
21. Over 14,000 more full time police officers have been hired.
22. Created the Independent Police Complaints Commission.
23. Funding in Victim support has more than doubled.
24. Drug treatment for drug users has quadrupled. 96% of drug users receive treatment within three weeks of being assessed.
25. Spending in Education had doubled.
    Actually it has more than doubled.  What HAS doubled is the allowance per pupil.  Regardless of the cries of ‘red tape’ from the other benches, the simple fact is that headteachers has twice as much to spend on their pupils.
26. Hired a further 36,000 extra teachers and 172,000 more classroom assistants.
27. An additional 1,100 new schools have been built or old schools rebuilt.
28. Teachers pay increased by over 40%.
29. Student grants have been re-introduced.
30. Investment in the NHS has risen nearly 200%.
31. Have built 149 new hospitals.
32. Deaths from heart disease are now 40% lower than in 1997.
33. All suspected cancer cases seen within the first two weeks of referral.
    The NHS can now guarantee that you will see a cancer specialist within two weeks if your GP suspects you may have cancer. Whatever your condition, you will not have to wait more than 18 weeks from GP referral to the start of hospital treatment – and most waits are much shorter than this.
34. Guaranteed NHS dentist.
    Did anyone else try to get an NHS dentist in the 80′s and 90′s?  It was a right pain-in-the-tooth wasn’t it?
    
35. Introduced the first ‘points’ system based on successful international models to restrict the number and type of immigration to the UK.
    Previously there had been no limits, and no categorisation of immigrants beyond ‘immigrant’ and ‘asylum seeker’.  Tony Blair also attempted to get camps set up for asylum seekers, to give them somewhere safe to stay, with access to healthcare, shops, and an education for their children, yet keeping them somewhere they couldn’t run away from until their application was processed.  This wonderful idea was shut down by the European Court of Human Rights.  Shame, I thought it was a fantastic idea that only bogus asylum seekers would have been uncomfortable with.
36. Introduced INDEPENDENT National regulation for the Financial Services industry.
    Although this body has power over National Financial ‘business’, it’s powers are limited on a Global level.  Attempts by Gordon Brown to convince the International community to sign up to a Global regulator in 1998 were unsuccessful.  Among others, the French, the USA, and the Chinese were not interested.
37. Leading the world in the abolition of 3rd world debt and climate change.
    Some of the 3rd world’s poorest countries had up to 100% of their debt abolished in a move orchestrated by the UK Government.
38. Introduced ‘Gift Aid’.
    The Gift Aid scheme is for gifts of money by individuals who pay UK tax. Gift Aid donations are regarded as having basic rate tax deducted by the donor. Charities take your donation – which is money you’ve already paid tax on – and reclaim the basic rate tax from HMRC.  For donations between 6 April 2008 and 5 April 2011 the charity will also get a separate government supplement of three pence on every pound you give.
39. Made building access for the disabled and wheelchair users compulsory.
    Suddenly, disabled people had a right to demand that their local shops and businesses catered for their needs, and any companies that were required to retro-fit existing buildings could ask for government financial help.  This made a massive difference to those affected.  This legislation also paved the way for a truly universal public transport system.
40. Banned Smoking in Publicly accessible buildings/restaurants/workplaces.
    Self explanatory, but the health benefits will be realised after a generation.  The Health Service will be cheaper.  Less people are taking up smoking as a result.  Now we just need to ban smoking in doorways…..
41. Banned Fox Hunting.
    I know that a small proportion of the country bleated on about civil liberties, and the death of the countryside economy. But I think they have survived quite well, things change, people move on.   Where were these people when all the mines were closed all at the same time affecting whole towns and hundreds of thousands of people?  They weren’t protesting ‘the death of an industry’ then were they?  No.  They were praising Thatcher for standing up to the Unions, and for not being held to ransom.  Well, guess what; you can get your tractors back into the countryside where they belong.  There’s an old British expression:  What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.
42. Over three quarters of GP practices now offer extended opening hours for at least one evening or weekend session a week.
43. All prescriptions are now free for people being treated for cancer or the effects of cancer, and teenage girls are offered a vaccination against cervical cancer.
44. Three million more operations carried out each year than in 1997, with more than double the number of heart operations.
45. Doubled the number of registered childcare places to more than 1.3 million, one for every four children under eight years old.
46. More than doubled the number of apprenticeships starts, with figures for 2008/9 showing 240,000 started an apprenticeship this year compared to 75,000 in 1997.
47. The car scrappage scheme, where owners scrapping an old car receive £2,000 off the price of a new car, has assisted with over 380,000 orders being placed, keeping the automotive industry and its supply chain on its feet.
48. The UK’s greenhouse gas emissions are now 21 per cent below 1990 levels, beating the Kyoto target.
49. Over £20 billion invested in bringing social housing to decent standards.
50. Rough sleeping has dropped by two thirds and homelessness is at its lowest level since the early 1980s.
51. A new flexible Australian-style points-based system for immigration to ensure only those economic migrants who have the skills our economy needs can come to work in the UK.
    Okay, this may not be working at 100% efficiency because it has just been implemented. However it is proven system worldwide and should be more than sufficient to meet the demands of Britain.
52. Neighbourhood police teams.
    Every community now has its own dedicated neighbourhood police team, easily contactable by the people who live in that community and working with them to agree local priorities and deal with people’s concerns.
53. Britain now has more offshore wind capacity than any country in the world. Wind last year provided enough electricity to power 2 million homes.
54. Tripled Britain’s overseas aid budget.
55. Launched the Swimming Challenge Fund to support free swimming for over 60s and under 16s.
56. Free admission to national museums and galleries.
57. Devolution in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, an elected Mayor and Assembly for London and directly-elected mayors for those cities that want them.
58. Created a new right of pedestrian access to the English coast, so that every family has the opportunity to enjoy the length and breadth of our coastline.
59. Introduced four weeks’ paid holiday guarantee.
60. Introduced the right to request flexible working.
61. Introduced the same legal protection for part-time workers as full-time workers.
62. CAN YOU ADD TO MY LIST?  Please comment!

Add to this, that VAT has remained the same, my income tax went down.

That record ain’t too shabby now is it?

I wish Labour political broadcasts and interviews shouted lists like this from the rooftops.  I don’t think they ‘spin’ enough any more…..

You are probably wondering why someone so politically vocal hasn’t said a word during one of the most import General Elections in years.

The reason is, that there are so many pundits, commentators, and know-it-alls already wading in deep, that one more voice would be pointless.  There are plenty of people out there already saying what I think.  One of them is the leader of one of the parties.  They will be getting my vote, and although 6 months ago I was a little on the fence, I am now so far over the fence that I’m in the neighbours pool.

Roll on the election, then the Government can get back to business.